Bear Flag — how far to trust it, and where to fold
What Bear Flag is
A sharp drop, a narrow bounce, then continuation lower.
It also goes by falling flag.
What you actually look at
- A sharp drop for the pole, then a gentle bounce for the flag
- The bounce comes without volume
When to admit you were wrong
Void if the bounce recovers the start of the pole.
Deciding in advance when to call it off matters more than knowing the pattern. That level is also where your stop belongs. An analysis without an invalidation never finds out it was wrong.
The mistake beginners make
Mistaking the bounce for a bottom.
Try it yourself
The chart above is a real 4-hour stretch of XRP/KRW. The blue line sits at the level this pattern hinges on. Open the same stretch, draw it yourself, and if you see it differently post a rebuttal clip with "I see it differently".
This is for learning and is not investment advice. Nothing here recommends buying or selling.
Ulasan 7
Ulasan berlabel „Contoh” ditulis oleh pasukan untuk menunjukkan bagaimana perbincangan berjalan. Ia bukan pengguna sebenar.
Log masuk untuk mengulas- Tahap 1 PrebetWatchTheWickContoh. Ditulis oleh pasukan sebagai contoh bagaimana perbincangan berjalan. Ini bukan pengguna sebenar dan tidak dikira untuk ketepatan mahupun papan pendahulu.3 jam lalu
What catches me most often in Bear Flag is the poke through that snaps straight back. Enter the second it breaks and the next candle goes the other way. I always wait for the close.
- Tahap 1 PrebetVolumeOnlyContoh. Ditulis oleh pasukan sebagai contoh bagaimana perbincangan berjalan. Ini bukan pengguna sebenar dan tidak dikira untuk ketepatan mahupun papan pendahulu.3 jam lalu
Half agree with the post above. But "you only see it afterwards" is a price-only problem. Bear Flag only means something if volume shows up while the shape completes, and that part you can see live. If the shape is there and volume is dead, I do not buy it.
- Tahap 1 PrebetStopFirstContoh. Ditulis oleh pasukan sebagai contoh bagaimana perbincangan berjalan. Ini bukan pengguna sebenar dan tidak dikira untuk ketepatan mahupun papan pendahulu.3 jam lalu
The argument here is not really about being right. It is about what you lose when you are wrong. Bear Flag can be right half the time and you still survive if you leave cleanly at the invalidation. Right 90% of the time and losing it all once is the end.
- Tahap 1 PrebetWeekOneChartsContoh. Ditulis oleh pasukan sebagai contoh bagaimana perbincangan berjalan. Ini bukan pengguna sebenar dan tidak dikira untuk ketepatan mahupun papan pendahulu.3 jam lalu
Beginner question, sorry — there are so many shapes that look almost like Bear Flag that I keep mixing them up. If you had to name the one thing that decides it, what would it be?
- Tahap 1 PrebetByTheRulesContoh. Ditulis oleh pasukan sebagai contoh bagaimana perbincangan berjalan. Ini bukan pengguna sebenar dan tidak dikira untuk ketepatan mahupun papan pendahulu.3 jam lalu
My answer to the question above: I do not decide in the moment. What I do when I see Bear Flag was written before the session opened. Decide mid-session and emotion is in there 100% of the time.
- Tahap 0 RekrutWeeklyOnlyContoh. Ditulis oleh pasukan sebagai contoh bagaimana perbincangan berjalan. Ini bukan pengguna sebenar dan tidak dikira untuk ketepatan mahupun papan pendahulu.3 jam lalu
Stretch the time axis and there is less to decide; less to decide means fewer mistakes. I think that is a count problem, not a skill problem.
- Tahap 1 PrebetMultiTimeframeContoh. Ditulis oleh pasukan sebagai contoh bagaimana perbincangan berjalan. Ini bukan pengguna sebenar dan tidak dikira untuk ketepatan mahupun papan pendahulu.3 jam lalu
Nobody mentioned timeframe. Bear Flag on the 15-minute and Bear Flag on the daily do not weigh the same. On lower timeframes the same shape shows up far more often and breaks far more often.
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