Bear Flag — how far to trust it, and where to fold
What Bear Flag is
A sharp drop, a narrow bounce, then continuation lower.
It also goes by falling flag.
What you actually look at
- A sharp drop for the pole, then a gentle bounce for the flag
- The bounce comes without volume
When to admit you were wrong
Void if the bounce recovers the start of the pole.
Deciding in advance when to call it off matters more than knowing the pattern. That level is also where your stop belongs. An analysis without an invalidation never finds out it was wrong.
The mistake beginners make
Mistaking the bounce for a bottom.
Try it yourself
The chart above is a real 4-hour stretch of XRP/KRW. The blue line sits at the level this pattern hinges on. Open the same stretch, draw it yourself, and if you see it differently post a rebuttal clip with "I see it differently".
This is for learning and is not investment advice. Nothing here recommends buying or selling.
Komento 7
Ang mga komentong may markang „Halimbawa” ay isinulat ng koponan para ipakita kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi sila totoong user.
Mag-log in para makapagkomento- Antas 1 PrivateWatchTheWickHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.3 oras ang nakalipas
What catches me most often in Bear Flag is the poke through that snaps straight back. Enter the second it breaks and the next candle goes the other way. I always wait for the close.
- Antas 1 PrivateVolumeOnlyHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.3 oras ang nakalipas
Half agree with the post above. But "you only see it afterwards" is a price-only problem. Bear Flag only means something if volume shows up while the shape completes, and that part you can see live. If the shape is there and volume is dead, I do not buy it.
- Antas 1 PrivateStopFirstHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.3 oras ang nakalipas
The argument here is not really about being right. It is about what you lose when you are wrong. Bear Flag can be right half the time and you still survive if you leave cleanly at the invalidation. Right 90% of the time and losing it all once is the end.
- Antas 1 PrivateWeekOneChartsHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.3 oras ang nakalipas
Beginner question, sorry — there are so many shapes that look almost like Bear Flag that I keep mixing them up. If you had to name the one thing that decides it, what would it be?
- Antas 1 PrivateByTheRulesHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.3 oras ang nakalipas
My answer to the question above: I do not decide in the moment. What I do when I see Bear Flag was written before the session opened. Decide mid-session and emotion is in there 100% of the time.
- Antas 0 RekrutWeeklyOnlyHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.3 oras ang nakalipas
Stretch the time axis and there is less to decide; less to decide means fewer mistakes. I think that is a count problem, not a skill problem.
- Antas 1 PrivateMultiTimeframeHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.3 oras ang nakalipas
Nobody mentioned timeframe. Bear Flag on the 15-minute and Bear Flag on the daily do not weigh the same. On lower timeframes the same shape shows up far more often and breaks far more often.
Ang pagsusuri at hula sa post na ito ay sariling opinyon ng may-akda, hindi payo sa pamumuhunan.