What logging 30 pattern trades taught me
I wrote down the condition first, then the outcome, thirty times. Not a backtest, just a notebook.
Two things surprised me.
First, my memory was wrong in one direction only. I remembered the wins in detail and the losses vaguely. Second, the pattern was not the problem. Roughly half my entries did not actually meet the condition I had written down — I had talked myself into "close enough" in the moment.
Sharing the format in case it is useful: date, market, condition, invalidation, outcome, and one line on whether I actually followed my own rule.
Komento 5
Ang mga komentong may markang „Halimbawa” ay isinulat ng koponan para ipakita kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi sila totoong user.
Mag-log in para makapagkomento- Antas 1 PrivatePatternSkepticHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17
This is the only thing that would change my mind about patterns, honestly. Thirty is small, but it is thirty more than most people have. Did you count the ones you skipped?
- Antas 1 PrivateCountingItHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17
Not at first, and that was a mistake — the skipped ones are where the honest data lives. I log them now with "why skipped". Some of those reasons do not survive being written down.
- Antas 1 PrivateByTheRulesHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17
The "did I follow my rule" column is the important one. Without it you end up blaming the strategy for execution problems and rewriting a rule that was fine.
- Antas 1 PrivateWeekOneChartsHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17
Copying this format. Question — do you log before the outcome is known, or fill it in afterwards?
- Antas 1 PrivateCountingItHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17
Before, always. Filling it in afterwards is how the story gets tidied up. The row has to exist while you still do not know.
Ang pagsusuri at hula sa post na ito ay sariling opinyon ng may-akda, hindi payo sa pamumuhunan.