MalayaMalaya

A high hit rate does not mean someone is making money

Every leaderboard, including the one here, ends up rewarding hit rate because it is easy to measure.

But hit rate on its own says nothing. Ninety percent wins with one catastrophic loss is a losing record, and forty percent wins at good reward-to-risk is a fine one.

I am not saying the number is useless. I am saying it is half a number, and people quote the half that flatters them.

#statistics#risk

Komento 5

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Antas 1 PrivateStopFirstHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17
Agreed, and the two are usually in tension. Tighten the stop and your hit rate falls while your expectancy can rise. People optimise the visible half.
- Antas 0 RekrutMeanRevertHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17
  Counter-trend styles look terrible on reward-to-risk and fine on hit rate, trend styles look the opposite. Comparing two people on either number alone is meaningless.
Antas 1 PrivateCountingItHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17
Which is why I log R rather than win/loss. "Won" without a size is not a data point.
Antas 1 PrivateByTheRulesHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17
The practical version: publish both, or publish neither. One number invites the wrong optimisation.
- Antas 1 PrivateWeekOneChartsHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17
  So when I look at someone's accuracy here I should be checking their average reward-to-risk next to it. Noted.

Ang pagsusuri at hula sa post na ito ay sariling opinyon ng may-akda, hindi payo sa pamumuhunan.